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My PRISM prediction

January 28, 2019

My first public trial result prediction on AsPredicted.org

PRISM is a randomised trial comparing progesterone or placebo for the treatment of women with a threatened miscarriage. i.e. vaginal bleeding but the scan shows a heart beat, so the fetus is alive. Details here.

In July 2018, the chief investigator Arri Coomarasamy rang up to tell me the result in confidence.

It was a Sunday morning, I was eating my breakfast and tapping out a blog post criticising the way an education trial had been interpreted (click here).  The post sank without trace – one “like” and no comments – but Arri’s call fired me up.

As he swore me to secrecy, I said:

“Not another word Arri. I’m going to predict the result on a date-stamped website, send it to you and call you back. Then you may tell me.”

Click here to read my prediction. Dates are in US format; Month/Day/Year.

Or if you prefer, guess what the arch sceptic, who believes the only thing maintaining interest in progesterone is it’s name (click here), predicted?

The trial publication will appear soon. You can see if Jim was right.

Jim Thornton

For more on AsPredicted.org click here.

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